A week into early voting, and turnout in Virginia is more than double what it was at the same point in 2022, the last time America held presidential midterm elections. 

Pulling from the Virginia Department of Elections early voting file, VPAP reports 183,188 people have voted early, more than double the 75,422 people who had voted at this same point in 2022. 

That jump in voting is likely driven by one overarching factor – voter anger. That, in and of itself, isn’t new. Anger has been a recurring theme in recent elections – Republicans used anger to fuel Trump’s first run to the White House, Democrats returned the favor to take the House in 2018, frustration with COVID response cost Democrats the House in 2022, and pushback against “woke” fueled Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. 

Midterms, of course, are almost always a referendum on the presidency. So anger usually plays a role. 

But for Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at the University of  Mary Washington, this may be the angriest electorate in more than 50 years. “I nominate 1974 for the top spot in the angriest midterm electorate before this year,” he told the Virginia Free Press via text message. 

There were multiple factors in 1974 driving that anger – “Vietnam, Watergate, presidential deceit,” he said. It was “also a rough economic patch – [the] oil embargo, recession, inflation.” 

Republicans bore the brunt of the anger that year. And that may well happen again this year. But for very different reasons. 

In 1974, the anger was one-sided and focused on Republicans. Plenty of people simply stayed home, as voter turnout was the lowest it had been since the 1940s. 

What sets this year’s midterms apart, however, is that the anger appears to be more bipartisan than in previous midterms. Anti-Trump sentiment and anti-data center sentiment are at record highs. 

But here in Virginia the two won’t necessarily have an equal impact on congressional races across the commonwealth. 

Early voting may provide some insight into how much each is driving voters.

Data Centers in the 7th and 10 Congressional District Races 

A new poll from Pew Research released last week shows American voters continuing to sour on the issue of data centers, despite a substantial number of people saying they know relatively little about them.

The poll reveals three areas that a majority or near-majority of people have a negative view of data centers – the environment (54 percent), home energy costs (50 percent), and quality of life nearby (49%). Each area is up from January 2026 when the question was last asked.

Those numbers don’t surprise in light of national polling overall the past year, but what should catch attention is the Republican shift against data centers.

Between January 2026 and now, the percentage of Republicans saying that they think data centers are “mostly bad” for the environment has moved 16 points, from 31 percent in January 2026 to 47 percent in the most-recent poll. 

And a majority of Republicans say they would be “not too,” or “not at all,” comfortable with a data center operating in their area. 

Here in Virginia, anti-data center sentiment is likely to play a role in the outcomes of races in the 7th and 10 congressional districts. But its impact is not hitting each race the same.

The 7th – which includes parts of Prince William County, and all of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties – hosts growing numbers of data centers. However, neither of the major-party candidates has taken a hard line against bringing this infrastructure to the district. 

Rather, like the governor, they promote proposals that tighten the reins on how data centers source energy and where they are sited, but neither supports a moratorium. 

The Republican candidate Doug Ollivant’s campaign website says he wants to keep data center “jobs and investments here at home,” and would look to nuclear and natural gas to power them. 

The incumbent, Democrat Eugene Vindman wants to ensure that data centers are not sited near “National Parks, schools, or near residential communities,” and that they should “pay their fair share.” Recently, he has voted for the Ratepayer Protection Act and is promoting legislation to reverse tax breaks for data centers in the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

In the 10th, which is home to Loudoun County, the issue will likely play a more-prominent role. 

Democratic incumbent Suhas Subramanyam has become an outspoken national voice against data centers, sponsoring a package of legislation known as the National Data Center Plan which would be a step toward nationalizing the industry. 

It comes as the county has taken steps to pause certain data center development while the Board of Supervisors works on Phase 2 of the county’s Data Center Standards and Locations initiative. 

Subramanyam’s opponent, Dave Beckwith, has taken a more-moderate stance, though he has spoken out about new powerlines across the county. 

While data centers are prominent players in both districts, early voting results show that neither district is seeing the greatest surge in voters. Indeed, of the 11 districts, the 7th ranks fifth in early voting (16,295 votes cast) and the 10th ranks ninth (14,639 votes cast).

The two districts realizing the highest turnout are the 1st (25,774) and the 5th (20,590). And while data centers play a role in those elections, it may not be the most important.

Trump and Data Centers Secondary in the 1st, 5th and 2nd Districts

While voters may be souring on data centers, the president’s approval ranking is at historic lows. And with control of the House hanging in the balance, Trump is playing a prominent role in the 5th district race, one of the three most-closely-watched races in Virginia. 

Democrat Tom Perriello launched his campaign for Congress focusing on affordability issues, but rather than zeroing in on one and blaming Trump, he has instead tied Republican incumbent John McGuire to a “wall of corruption.” Wedding rising food costs with voter anger over rising gas costs, Big Tech, health care concerns, and the cost of electricity, Perriello is trying to tie McGuire not to a man, but rather the idea that his opponent has backed him to the exclusion of the interests of his constituents. 

McGuire, by contrast, is standing with Trump, prominently posting the president’s endorsement on his campaign website. While the president’s popularity is down markedly nationwide, McGuire is betting that in 5th district voters who handed him a 15-point victory in 2024 will again stand with him.

In the 1st Congressional District, also closely watched, neither Trump nor data centers appear to be driving the races.

Democrat Shannon Taylor has worked to aggressively tie Republican incumbent Rob Wittman to Trump. Rather, she has focused on corruption more broadly and insider stock trading in particular. Much in the way that Perriello is talking about corruption.

Similarly, Wittman has focused his campaign on kitchen-table issues – the economy, education, high prices – and carefully avoiding invoking Trump. 

On data centers, both talk about keeping energy costs in line, and Taylor has insisted they be built with union labor. But for now it is a second-tier issue for both candidates. 

A similar pattern emerges in the 2nd district. While both Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans and the Democratic challenger Elaine Luria have much to say about protecting and serving veterans, data centers are more likely to be discussed in terms of energy affordability, and Trump is kept at arm’s length.

Widespread Anger

A New York Times reporting piece just prior to Election Day in 1974 said that voter frustration had led to “[m]ore and more voters appear[ing] to have concluded that nothing they can do with their ballots will really change things.” 

If early voting trends are any indication, that will not be the case this year. 

Indeed, the opposite seems to be true. Voters appear to be embracing the power of the ballot and turning out. Even if the anger they feel is spread across a range of topics and issues.  

If there’s an upside to the broad frustration voters feel, it may be that belief in the ballot is far stronger now than it was the last time voters were this angry.