Recently two polls have dropped showing different views on the popularity of Governor Abigail Spanberger.

The first out was from the Wilder School at VCU – click here for that one.  Spanberger is at 44% Approval and 47% Disapproval or underwater by 3.  Cue the gasp, with social media full of cut and pastings galore and headlines repeating GOP talking points.

Yet as soon-to-be incoming British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan reminded the about-to-be sacked Prime Minister Sir Anthony Eden in the fabulous Netflix series The Crown: There is no justice in politics.

Great line.

Fast forward off of the July VCU poll and Morning Consult released its polling on statewide electeds (Gov and US Senate) for every state and not surprisingly found a very different Approval/Disapproval for Spanberger. Why not surprisingly?

VCU and Morning Consult Use Different Methodologies

VCU polled adults, which means anyone over 18 who answers the poll while Morning Consult polled registered voters.  Neither is technically wrong, but neither is a campaign poll.  According to Morning Consult, Spanberger has a MUCH better Approval to Disapproval: 54 to 37 — or plus 17.

That’s a 20 point swing from VCU, and it didn’t happen over a month.

What’s remarkable about the Morning Consult poll is that Spanberger has a higher net approval rating among Democrats (+78) than U.S. Senators Mark Warner (+72) and Tim Kaine (+68) but lower among Independents.  Spanberger is only +8 while Warner is +25 and Kaine +15 among Independents. It’s also another reason why Warner appears to be cruising to re-election this fall.  That’s a number that should be more and more important going forward as more and more voters self-identify as Independents.

The VCU poll had Self Identification at 37% Independent, 31% Democrat, and only 22% Republican. Again – among adults, not registered voters.

Why? Insolvency comes in 2032 – the term of the current US Senate election.  Yes, the kicked can finds the end of road soon.