“There’s no argument over the choice between peace and war, but there’s only one guaranteed way you can have peace — and you can have it in the next second — surrender.”

— Ronald Reagan, “A Time for Choosing” (1964)

Look — I’m not immune to the cri de coeur regarding the present state of the Republican Party of Virginia’s vaunted grassroots operation. The simple fact of the matter is that someone is making a lot of money off the rest of us and our $50 contributions aren’t exactly going to turn the tide of public sentiment.

That having been said, our unit committees consist of us.

If we want to change how things work, then let’s roll up our shirt sleeves and get involved. The whole concept of a “paid volunteer” mystifies me. Conservatives didn’t used to be so mercenary, that is until the clowns in vests carrying clipboards and getting drunk started mocking the grassroots. Just about anyone who has ever been involved in GOP politics in Virginia knows exactly the sort I am talking about.

The problem is that a handful of folks — and I will not point fingers, just merely gesture at the problem — decided that this is what campaigning really was. Get those five-figure checks each month, sit back, and tell people what to do. Even to the point of ruthlessly stabbing friends in the back with the battle cry of leaving it all on the field and “this is the business” who then wonder next year why they can’t build the same army again. The vultures move onto the next feast somewhere else and lose there too.

I’ve always personally wondered whether the left paid people like this to do the work. Certainly they have in previous contests and have openly bragged about it in the pages of the Washington Post.

Yet never mind the trolls. And never mind the doomers. One of the core mantras of the conservative movement in Virginia has always been better a bad Democrat than a bad Republican — ostensibly because it is far easier to unseat a bad Democrat than a bad Republican. Yet since at least 2001, Republican infighting has cost us more losses than Democratic victories ever could. The Virginia Republican tradition of ‘gone fishing’ has crippled the GOP time and again.

Democrats know it.

The Reality: We Are At War

For the record, Trump’s tariff policy has been a boneheaded play from the start. Yet for as long as globalism and globalization remains slurs to be weaponized against free markets, expect stuff to get a bit more expensive. Though inflation has by and large been arrested and is by no means what we experienced under Bidenflation, the rockets and feathers effect when it comes to Brent crude oil and its impact on gasoline prices and much else is a well-documented phenomena.

We should get one thing straight up front though, because gasoline prices and its impact on the American economy is but one domino in a series of dominoes created by American foreign policy failures over the last two decades.

The God’s honest truth that we all know deep down but do not want to articulate is this: WE ARE ALREADY IN WORLD WAR THREE.

Read it again.
Let it sink in.
Then read it a third time.

Iran was building 10,000 Shahed drones a month before Trump kicked off the conflict with the ayatollahs. By 2029, Iran would have been able to overwhelm not just the defenses of Gulf States but of the Israelis as well, locking down the Straits of Hormuz and preventing anything short of a physical invasion from stopping them.

This same design is being used and improved upon by the Russian Federation in the Ukraine, where the coming winter offensive will not stop at the so-called fortress belt in the Donbas. Not only this, but the Russian Federation is openly testing NATO resolve against Poland and the Baltic Countries, weakening our commitments in hopes the Western phalanx will shatter.

Making matters much more complicated, the People’s Republic of China continues to ramp up its military preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan as soon as 2027.

What the Trump administration did in real time was spring the trap early. Trump’s successful decapitation of the leadership regime in Venezuela enforced the Monroe Doctrine. Communist Cuba is on the ropes. Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip — both Iranian proxies — have seen their ability to project force reduced to near zero. Iran’s nuclear option has been effectively buried under tons of rock — not an end, but at least a deterrence.

Oil pressures are improving by increments. While the IRGC and the mullahs continue to hold on to power, the embargo on Iran has raised the price of the rial by 3,173.42% since last year. Iran has about 15 million barrels of oil left to trade on tankers that are still out to sea. Once those are sold, that’s it — there’s nothing left to pay the IRGC. About 7.4 million barrels of oil are transiting through the Straits of Hormuz each day, down from its pre-war number of 20 million. Saudi Arabia is presently back to pre-war numbers despite the Houthi attack on its East-West Pipeline.

In short, the Venezuelan government is no longer antagonistic to U.S. interests. Cuba is on the cusp of transitioning to democracy. Iran’s nuclear weapons are at present beyond use. The Iranian regime — responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans, thousands of Israelis, and millions worldwide — are running out both money and time. Russia is finding that combined arms using Ukrainian upgraded T-64s and drones are more tenacious than previously thought. Meanwhile, China’s recent experience in Venezuela and Iran are demonstrating that Western resolve is more firm than previously anticipated.

What’s left? Psychological operations — that’s what.

If You Can’t Beat Them, Demoralize Them

If Republicans actually turned out in non-presidential year elections, we would not only hold the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, not only would we take back the General Assembly, not only would we win our statewide gubernatorial and attorney general seats, but we would be able to define policy for a generation or more.

Democrats don’t beat Republicans. Republicans beat Republicans by staying home.

The left wins when Republicans confuse pessimism with principle.

Look — I get it. I’m paying the same prices for groceries, the same prices for gasoline, the same high prices for stuff due to tariffs only to watch them gets struck down by the courts and for the businesses to get reimbursed (but not the consumer!) for the illegal prices, and the same bewilderment as prices stay high as economic pressures ease.

I see it as people in Washington flirt with NATO — the bedrock of the American security arrangement since the Second World War — and I see it as the United States continues to try to cut deals with a Russian Federation actively trying to play the Americans off against the Chinese while weakening a European Union more concerned about pronouns than they are about their own defense.

What I do not understand is how social media has conditioned us to have the memories of goldfish:

Cumulative inflation since January 2020 has been 30%. From January 2021 — the start of the Biden administration — it has been 28.06%.

Since January 2025 — the beginning of the Trump administration? 5.45% over two years and very close to the Federal Reserve target of 2% despite gasoline prices.

The arsonists are blaming the fire brigade, folks.

What about the bond markets being north of 5%? Well — three pressures on that: (1) oil prices on the worldwide economy, but (2) the resilience of the American economy and its growth over the last 18 months coupled with (3) massive borrowing to fuel the artificial intelligence industry and the construction of data centers. From a pure growth perspective, increased demand on the economy and an emerging industry requires more energy. If the economy were tanking, gas prices would be lower (see: COVID in 2020).

In fact, without tariffs the economy might actually be taking off like a rocket (and yes, you’d see higher interest rates as a result). For most of us, it’s gasoline prices and the contaminant features higher prices have on diesel, plastics, transportation, and food prices. In Virginia, DOGE has chopped about 23,000 federal jobs and is still on track to lose a grand total of 18,000 jobs despite local governments tacking on 10,000 jobs this year. If not for data centers and after four years of net growth under Youngkin, Virginia’s GDP would be on track for negative growth this year.

All About the Enthusiasm Gap, Folks

The short version is that the American economy is a lot stronger than folks realize, despite the pressures created by worldwide grain markets and oil prices (Ukraine and Iran).

This despite fighting World War Three.

Yet what should interest the rest of us is how just three weeks ago, pollsters were talking about how Republicans might actually be able to keep the U.S. House as well as the U.S. Senate. What changed? The narrative — not the fundamentals.

All of the sudden, after watching the Democrats nominate some of the most extreme socialist candidates who want to not just abolish the Senate but abolish police and even abolish Thanksgiving, now we find Republican voices who magically are at war with Republicans over gas prices, endless wars, and affordability.

All Democratic talking points.

This isn’t to say that those who have been trapped by Democratic social media operators aren’t sincere. Yet the fact of the matter is that this orchestra was exposed weeks ago. Democratic consultants are spending millions of dollars trying to dampen Republican enthusiasm heading into the midterms.

Why? Because if Republican enthusiasm is over 80%? Republicans win and Democrats lose.

If vice versa, Republican enthusiasm is lower than 60%? Democrats win every time. This used to be the other way around where Republicans voted steadily as a bloc and Democrats needed to gin up the base. So what do we complain about? Stuff we can’t control, obviously — because that’s the surest way to beat one’s head against the wall.

Insofar as the failures of the Virginia GOP volunteer apparatus, I get it — it’s been hacked away at for the better part of three decades. All it takes to put it back together is you. You don’t even need your local GOP committee. You can just, in the immortal words of Elon Musk, you know, do stuff. Of course, it’s easier with friends — so just call up your local GOP committee and do stuff. Ask to do stuff.

• Want to buy signs? There isn’t any cavalry coming. Pool the money together and buy some.
• Want to place signs? Call some folks up and ask to put those signs in their yard or on that intersection.
• Want to cover a precinct? Just ask. Bring a table, a thermos, a couple of big rocks to hold some sample ballots, and get to know the opposition too. When it is 22F outside and both sides are freezing, the banter gets friendly indeed.
• Want to go knock on doors? Ask your congressional or senatorial campaign. They’ll get you set up.
• Want to volunteer inside a precinct? Totally non-partisan and absolutely essential to this little experiment we call America. About as close to the sacred as a secular thing can get.

This is true whether your are Democratic or Republican. And no — you don’t have to hate your opposition to disagree with them. In fact, you might even learn why certain people believe what they believe and why.

Pessimism Isn’t Principled — It’s Stupid

In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan wasn’t so much worried about the Soviet Union as he was about public opinion back home.

The Soviets knew they couldn’t defeat the West in a force-on-force contest, so they spent millions of dollars using the West’s commitment to freedom of speech and freedom of the press against us.

These psychological tactics aren’t new. In fact, political consultants have been driving fear into the camps of their enemies for decades now. Two weeks ago, it was a Democratic Party bankrupt and at war with itself — remember?

Today — magically — it is a Republican Party who is being blamed for not fixing the mess Democrats made fast enough being driven to be at war with itself.

Nonsense.

Facts are that America is putting a lot of pressure on its enemies right now, and they are beginning to crack. October 7th, 2023 was just the starting point. Hamas and Hezbollah are shattered, Maduro is in prison, Cuba is near collapse, Ukraine is retaking ground, the embargo on Iran is working, and China is second guessing its next moves. Would any of this be happening with a Democratic White House?

On the domestic front, inflation is under control and jobs are being created. Gas prices are high and so are interest rates, yet given the geopolitical forces? Patriotism is also at a high premium as well.

Remember the kind of Virginia we were facing in 2021 with crime rates through the roof, parents being told what to do with their kids, and back-to-back 9% inflationary rates reminiscent of the Jimmy Carter era.

Remember Thomas Paine’s admonishment to the Americans just one year into their fight for independence:

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value.

Remember Ronald Reagan as well. Conservatives are often accused of not conserving much, yet as we have experimented with tariffs, demonized globalization, and flirted with NATO — the wisdom and durability of the conservative movement is and remains in full force. That the enemies of conservatism on the left and the right merely tinker with our achievements is a victory in its own right.

The ememies of freedom have to be clever because they can never be outright.

Just don’t sell out to the nonsense.

Pessimism might seem clever to the group that seeks to be first in all things, the sort that never lifts a finger but to say “see I told you so” isn’t a constituency worth listening to. Principled conservatives need to push past the misinformation and stick to the numbers. Yes, the populists got tariffs wrong — but the American economy and the national interest are strong, resilient, and undefeated.

More than that, whether the enemies be foreign or domestic, America’s enemies are worth fighting because America is GOOD. We are on the right track, even if we are going through a storm. Let the pessimists and fair-weather types abandon the ship — it has a clarifying effect on who the next generation of leaers ought to be. Gas prices are up, but our economy is strong, our enemies are on the run, no one fears being fired for using the wrong pronouns anymore, and the only place we are weak is within our own resolve to see things through.

Enough from weak populism and weaker socialism. The way to peace is through American strength and conservative resolve. Get excited folks — the future is bright if we fight for it.

SHAUN KENNEY is the senior editor for The Republican Standard.