A political realignment (also called party realignment) occurs when a coalition of voters that typically supports a political party fundamentally and permanently changes.

This is not a temporary swing in a single election. It is a lasting transformation in which regions, demographic groups, or economic classes switch their party loyalty for a generation or more.

For example, in the “old days” we talked about the Solid South as being a region of the country that almost always backed the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates; but these days, 

when we talk about the Solid South, it is a region of the country that overwhelmingly supports the Republican party and Republican candidates…..with some notable exceptions, of course, like Virginia.

 

But today is Labor Day, and that reminds us of another significant political realignment that may be taking place in American politics – the movement of blue collar voters away from the Democratic Party, which they had traditionally supported because of labor related issues; and toward the Republican Party, which they are increasingly supporting, drawn largely by the populist message of President Trump and the MAGA movement.

 

In the 2012 presidential election, 59% of blue-collar voters voted for President Obama, with only 41% of blue-collar voters supporting Republican Mitt Romney. That was consistent with traditional blue collar voting patterns.

 

But in the 2024 presidential election 56% of blue-collar voters voted for Donald Trump, while only 42% of blue-collar voters supported Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

The same polls tell us that white working-class voters favored Trump over Harris by 66% to 32%, and that Trump won a larger share of working-class Black and Latino voters than he did in 2020.

 

These are trends we have seen since President Trump’s first election victory in 2016, when blue collar voters moved to Republicans, supporting Trump by a margin of 52%-44% over Senator Hillary Clinton.

 

Why have blue-collar voters moved toward Republicans in recent years?

 

That’s a debatable question, but I would suggest that three factors have driven this political realignment:

 

* Blue-collar voters are attracted to the more populist and conservative message of the Republican Party, especially its emphasis on public safety, illegal immigration, traditional values, protecting Second Amendment rights, and a strong national defense.

* Blue-collar voters are turned off by the Democratic Party’s movement toward issues dominated by the political left, especially their emphasis on gun control, climate change, support of the LGBTQ agenda, and opposition to efforts to get tough on crime and illegal immigration.

* The decline of union membership, which strongly encouraged blue-collar voter alignment with the Democratic Party. Today, less than 10% of American workers belong to labor unions, and most of these are government workers. Less than 6% of private sector workers belong to a union. This is a dramatic decline from the union heavy heydays of the 1950s.

 

Will this movement of blue-collar workers to the Republican Party continue in the “post-Trump” days? Time will tell, but I suspect the Democratic Party, with its rapid embrace of far-left wing politics, will have a hard time regaining these voters.

 

But if you are a Democrat, do not despair. There have been other political realignments that have taken place in recent years that favor the Democratic Party, particularly the movement of more highly educated suburban voters from the Republican Party, which they feel has become too conservative and too populist.

 

This realignment has also been driven largely by President Trump. While Trump’s populist message has appealed to many blue-collar voters, it has turned off many more highly educated voters and suburbanites, especially women.

I guess there is one constant in all of this. Whether you love him or hate him, Donald Trump has been responsible for much of the political realignment we have seen in our country over the past decade.