Before we start analyzing all the races ahead of Election Day 2026, let’s drop back at look a dynamic from 2024 that has gone largely unexamined:

The Spoiler Effect

A spoiler candidate is a non-winning, typically third-party or independent candidate whose presence on the ballot draws votes away from a major contender with similar ideological views.

This phenomenon, known as the “spoiler effect,” often splits the majority vote, inadvertently allowing a less popular or ideologically opposed candidate to win the election.

How the Spoiler Effect Works

The spoiler effect is primarily a byproduct of plurality voting systems (commonly called “first-past-the-post” or “winner-take-all”), where the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they do not achieve an absolute majority.

This begs the question – Should election outcomes be determined by majority or plurality?

Personally, my preference is majority and not plurality.

The primary benefit of requiring a majority winner in political campaigns is that it ensures the elected official has a mandate to govern.

I think that is important for not only the elected official but the broader electorate.

So, let’s talk at look at some U.S. Senate races from 2024.

Michigan

Nevada

Wisconsin

 

All closely divided states that matter significantly in the Electoral College, but how would the U.S. Senate be today if those three states had required a majority winner?