The 3rd Congressional District’s electorate is distributed among five localities. Norfolk, Newport News, and Hampton each have more than 100,000 registered voters in each respective district. Chesapeake has about 85,000, and Portsmouth some 69,000. Defense, health care, and education are the employment drivers in the District.
Previous officeholders include Andrew Jackson Montague (Democrat) who won the seat in 1913 having previously served as the 44th governor of Virginia. Tom Bliley (Republican) who won the district in 1980 following 80 years of Democratic control. The redistricting process in 1990 led to Bliley moving from the 3rd to 7th, which he held until 2001.
Platforms
INCUMBENT: Bobby Scott (D-VA)
CHALLENGER: Edwin Rivera Jr. (R)
Bobby Scott first won the 3rd Congressional District seat in 1992 and is seeking an 18th consecutive term. During his tenure, Scott has earned a reputation for supporting legislation that ensures education for all. He was one of four authors of the Every Student Succeeds Act, and was a key voice in the passage of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. He is the ranking member of the Committee on Education and Workforce. Reforming the criminal justice system is another issue Scott has championed. He was co-author of the Safe, Accountable, Fair, and Effective (SAFE) Justice Act with Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI). He is also an advocate for the shipbuilding industry and caucuses with the Congressional Shipbuilding Caucus as well as the Congressional Shipyard Caucus.
Scott’s challenger is Republican Edwin Rivera Jr., a U.S. Army combat veteran who is a Puerto Rican native and former police officer. Rivera is focused on “supporting practical policies that matter to constituents.” This includes education reform focused on elevating teacher pay, creating “public/private pathways to college from high school,” and ensuring Historically Black Colleges and Universities are appropriately funded. Other areas of concern are health care accessibility, strengthening public safety, and fixing the Green Card process.
State of the Race as of August 17
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
UVA Sabato Crystal Ball: Solid Democrat
270 to Win: Solid Democrat
VPAP: Solid Democrat
Rivera has an uphill climb just to make the 3rd District race close. In 2022 Scott won by 34 points; it was 40 points in 2024. Money favors the long-serving Democrat. This won’t be a big-dollar race like in the neighboring 2nd Congressional District, but Scott has a commanding advantage with $191,000 on-hand against just over $1,700 for Rivera according to VPAP. Add in a Generic Congressional Ballot that favors Democrats by 6.8 points according to Real Clear Politics, and a Republican president with polling numbers consistently in the low- to mid-30s, and one understands why the pundits have the 3rd in the Blue column.
What to Watch: David vs. Goliath
The story of this race is told in the money, and in the candidates’ records. Scott has money and a long record of success; Rivera has little money and is a newbie to politics. This race, in short, is a genuine David vs. Goliath contest.
Still, there’s an adage in sports that says if you’re in the game, you can win. Politics have been nothing if not volatile over the past decade. A sudden swing in Trump’s numbers, an unexpected stumble by Scott, or a major infusion of cash for Rivera and the projections would be worth revisiting.
With the November election approaching, Rivera has a narrowing window to build name recognition, raise money, and alter the fundamentals of the race.
