The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — colloquially referred to as the D-Trip — recently put Virginia’s “Fighting Fifth” District on their short list of opportunities for the 2026 mid-terms. The reason why is simple as two words: Tom Perriello.
Perriello is a known quality in this Republican stronghold, having beat former Congressman Virgil Googe back in 2008. Goode was a longtime fixture in Virginia politics, famously switching from Democratic to independent and finally to Republican as working-class Reagan Democrats eventually broke with Democrats in the early 1990s and cemented their identities with the GOP after the 2000 elections. Virginia Democrats have from time to time broken this mold. Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) succeeded in convincing traditionally-minded Democrats that he was one of them during his gubernatorial campaign in 2001 and came within five points of winning VA-05 back in 2020 (before redistricting, of course).
Perriello as well carried VA-05 on the coattails of eight years of fatigue combined with the historic opportunity to elect Barack Obama. During Perriello’s gubernatorial run, the same strategies continued to work for Perriello’s working-class credentials. One just can’t help but believe that Tom Perriello likes his constituents.
Meanwhile, incumbent Rep. John McGuire could be said to enjoy similar advantages to that of Rob Wittman or Ben Cline. Yet McGuire’s problems continue to plague his own candidacy with a fifth column within his own ranks from loyalists to Freedom Caucus stalwart and former Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) and particularly among evangelical voters. What’s more, McGuire’s constant reminder of his U.S. Navy SEAL credentials wear awfully thin in a district where groceries and gasoline is more expensive than ever. Did we mention the generic ballot is at present D+6.4? Tack that on to a poll showing Perriello within three points among likely voters plus a commitment from DCCC to commit scarce Democratic resources, and the board is blinking red. Or more accurately, blue.
Platforms
INCUMBENT: Representative John McGuire (R-VA) CHALLENGER: former Representative Tom Perriello (D-VA)
State of the Race as of August 23rd
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican UVA Sabato Crystal Ball: Solid Republican 270 to Win: Soft Republican VPAP: Lean Republican
Republican John McGuire is pro-life, pro-God, pro-gun, and pro-Trump. So says his campaign website in blaring Trumpian red. Make no mistake, McGuire is not running away from President Trump in the slightest degree. McGuire’s personal story is a heart wrenching one. Given up as a young child, McGuire bounced around in the foster care system until his grandparents were able to adopt him, where upon graduating high school, McGuire joined the United States Navy and served with the U.S. Navy SEALs. After starting his own physical therapy firm, McGuire suffered a severe neck injury that nearly left him paralyzed. In 2017, McGuire ran successfully for the Virginia House of Delegates. After unsuccessfully seeking the nod for the GOP nod in 2020, McGuire ran again for State Senate in 2023 and won decisively before running for Congress in 2024 against incumbent Rep. Bob Good. McGuire emerged victorious from a primary contest this year as well.
Meanwhile, Tom Perriello is not just a known quality for his service as congressman, but his father was a well-beloved local pediatrician in the Charlottesville area. After having attended Charlottesville public schools and earning his Eagle Scout rank, Perriello attended Yale University for both his undergraduate and his law degree. His experience is mostly overseas, serving in both non-profit and official capacities in hot zones such as Sudan, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Darfur. For four years, Perriello served as the U.S. Executive Director for the Open Society Foundations. After winning his election in 2008, Perriello was known for being one of the deciding votes in favor of Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act). Despite many Democrats pushing away from Obama in what would become a historic year for Republican opposition, Perriello campaigned with Obama in Charlottesville and was defeated by Republican Robert Hurt in 2010.
What to Watch: Perriello (That’s It. Just Watch Perriello)
The DCCC’s endorsement of Perriello on the short list of campaigns to watch should come as no surprise to Virginia political observers. Perriello has the reputation of a relentless campaigner and the work ethic to match the reputation. Perriello’s unique campaign style of connecting with working class voters gives the campaign not just a grassroots feel but one of genuine authenticity. Perriello is approachable, and even with Republicans, Perriello — much like Spanberger — makes it clear that even though there is disagreement, it is principled disagreement. In short, Perriello likes his constituents. So there’s the silver lining around a very big Republican cloud.
McGuire defeated his Democratic opposition in 2024 by a whopping 28 points. His predecessor won in 2022 by 29 points. In 2025 during Virginia’s statewide elections, Republicans swept the board with 18, 20, and 22 point margins respectively. In many ways, this is a contest between the values of Mr. Jefferson’s University and Mr. Falwell’s University. The beating heart of Virginia’s Fifth District remains in Lynchburg — not Charlottesville. And yet there is still turmoil inside Virginia’s Fifth District between two competing factions, one rallying around the congressman and the other wonder why a seat with a 28-point margin isn’t doing more in Washington to advance conservative values, make things more affordable, or explain just what the heck is going on in Washington.
If there is something to watch in VA-05, check and see whether Perriello is able to tack towards the center in the same way he campaigned against Virgil Goode in 2008. Perriello has lassoed the moon once before, and the Charlottesville area continues to grow. Should gas prices inch higher, and should Reagan Democrats lean a bit more on the latter than the former, Tom Perriello just might prove that a three-point deficit among likely voters — not adults, not registered voters, but likely voters — is a very real and serious number.
