Republicans across America are bewildered, wondering if anyone got the license number of the truck that ran over them. I did. It was 4.15, the national average price for regular gasoline as of November 3, 2026. All jesting aside, the huge losses the GOP took in 2024 solid red districts can be summed up clearly. Let’s review the winners and losers.
Loser: The War in Iran
People who voted for Donald Trump turned away because of broken promises. He said he would improve their economic situation. However, despite huge gains in wealth, declines in poverty, a secure border, and plummeting crime rates, people weren’t feeling the love. Instead, they felt the bite in their budgets, especially from gas prices, along with stubbornly high food costs.
Many Trump voters felt betrayed after he promised not to engage in wars. They argue that he started the one with Iran. In fact, that war has been ongoing for 47 years. Iranian terrorists have been killing Americans for decades, while previous administrations did nothing to punish them. Trump was right to intervene in Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon. But the administration didn’t do what it should have done to achieve victory decisively and quickly.
There was no effective coalition, as in the First Gulf War, which I fought in. That international coalition virtually guaranteed success, because it had clear goals and an articulated end state. Not so with the current conflict. The stated rationale early in the war was fuzzy, unpersuasive, and meandering day to day.
Chief among the errors was the loss of momentum in crushing the Iranian regime, which now has every possibility of surviving. Thinking Iran wanted to negotiate seriously was naïve. They are liars. If the case had been made to the American people for a decisive, unrelenting campaign, the regime would be gone today. It wasn’t, and the regime continues. The war dragged on, and much of the Trump base walked away. This was a profound loss, notwithstanding the destruction of Iran’s armed forces and significant damage to its nuclear program. Trump lost momentum, and the GOP lost votes in the process.
Loser: J.D. Vance
Vice President J.D. Vance has always had an anti-war streak. He understands that counterinsurgency wars with mutable goals often lead to mission creep and “forever wars.” That may be an inaccurate term, but it aptly expresses American fatigue with two decades of armed conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq. Antiwar sentiment galvanized Trump voters. Unfortunately for Vance, he is the Vice President to a President who—having confronted the realities of a dangerous world—ventured forward to stop a nuclear-armed Iran. Vance now has political “war stink” all over him, despite having privately expressed hesitation about the Iran conflict and lately, very publicly. But it’s impossible to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Vance is a political casualty of this war, and that will show up if he decides to seek the Presidency in 2028.
Winner: Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is, without question, the bright star in the Trump Administration. He has avoided “warmonger” status by maintaining a consistent diplomatic stance throughout the conflict. Unlike Vance, who unwisely inserted himself into negotiations with Iran thinking he could get Tehran to negotiate in good faith, Rubio understood Iranian intransigence. Instead, Rubio acted rationally and realistically, consistently maintaining a firm but thoughtful tone on what could be achieved in Iran. He didn’t signal that a deal was imminent when it wasn’t, preferring to say that if there is a possibility, fine. Coupled with his clear-headedness on foreign policy and his genuinely likable personality, he is more viable for higher office.
Winner: Ron DeSantis
Governor Ron DeSantis has undoubtedly been the most successful and accomplished governor in the US for the last eight years. His leadership in Florida was so strong that he helped secure major Republican victories in the recent election, just as he did in 2024. Voters love a winner, and DeSantis has consistently delivered victories. Moreover, Florida is one of the most attractive second-home destinations for Americans fleeing blue-state economic oppression. He will be a prominent White House candidate in 2028. This time, he won’t be constrained by his duties as a state chief executive.
Loser: The GOP Voter
Candidates matter. Good ones really matter. In this election year, GOP voters were left with some candidates who failed to measure up. In particular, in Georgia, Kansas, North Carolina, Texas, and South Carolina. One thing they had in common: White House recruitment and meddling. It’s almost ALWAYS better to defer to voters in a state to select those best able to win in elections, without unnecessary over-involvement.
Winner: The American Voter
Trust them. Respect them. Persuade them. They are not all fools. Keep your promises. That’s the formula for victory.
SCOTT LINGAMFELTER is a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, a retired U.S. Army colonel, and writer at Copybook Warrior.
