What sounds like a simple question – Do data centers elevate energy bills for residential customers? – is more-challenging than appears. Consider two studies on the topic released this week.

On November 6, the Washington Post reported on a new report by professors at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that argued that “data centers are probably having only a small effect on residential electricity prices. The researchers calculated that these operations were responsible for just 4 percent of the utility rate increases over the last five years.”

The report acknowledges price increases since 2020 across all utilities, “with a sharper rise in data center utilities, suggesting data centers may be raising electricity prices.”

The problem, the authors noted, is that when adjusted for inflation, “electricity prices appear flat or moderately decreasing.”

A second problem involves bundling utilities with and without data centers together. “Because utilities with and without data centers are not equivalent,” the report found, “a causal effect of data centers on prices cannot be determined simply by comparing differences in averages between these utilities.”

The story is not level across the country. The effect of data centers has been slightly more pronounced in states served by PJM. And it acknowledges that this could change as energy demands continue to climb.

Another study out of Cornell University, however, argues that data centers are driving costs, especially for those in rural areas. A synopsis of the study, which is behind a paywall, in Cornell News reports “Many more rural and lower-income residents saw proportionally higher bills; the share of rural families shouldering a high energy burden – spending more than 6% of their incomes on energy – rose 76% more than among urban residents. The authors cite a national survey finding that rural residents are also less likely to use AI tools like ChatGPT than urban residents.”

It also makes the argument that people in places removed from data centers in Virginia are paying in terms of higher energy bills.

Missing from the report, however, are findings from the Harvard study about the effects of inflation on the study (Note: Because the study is behind a paywall, we were not able to see how the researchers did or did not address that issue.)