The biggest change in the modern era of American presidential politics has received scant scholarly attention.
Our two-party era began with Lincoln’s win over the Democratic nominee in 1864. The first GOP President having won with only 39% in 1860 due to a 4-way race. From 1864 to 1944, a period of 80 years, is the pre-modern television era. Party bosses strictly controlled the nominees on the national ticket. Only two individual previously serving as Vice-President ever won a major party presidential nomination: Teddy Roosevelt in 1904 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924, with T.R. and “Silent Cal” of course already President and both having reached the Oval Office due the death of the previous occupant.
In practical effect, the vice presidency had become a graveyard for presidential ambitions.
Americans paid little attention to the individual holding what John Adams deemed the weirdest public office ever invented. Being Vice President was not quite criminal, but a social malady which an ambitious politicians wanted to avoid.
Enter then the current modern television era of presidential politics. President Truman gave the first televised presidential address in 1947. His re-election campaign ran the first political ads in 1948.
These last 80 years present a stark comparison to the first eight decades. Ten former Vice Presidents won their party’s presidential nomination: Truman, Nixon, Johnson, Humphrey, Ford, Mondale, Bush 41, Gore, Biden and Harris. Only Truman, LBJ, and Ford were already president. Thus the success of the other 7 — indeed even 1 — being unprecedented in the first 80-year phase to the two-party era.
In summary, there have been 20 presidential elections in the modern era. Only in 1952 and 2016 did the major party’s presidential nominees fail to include a former Vice-President.
Yet I understand why the pundits, press, pontificators, professors, and the professional political consultants have written off Vice-President JD Vance. They rightly point out only one sitting vice president managed to win a presidential election in the 160 years of the two-party era. The popularity of sitting President Ronald Reagan elected George H.w. Bush in 1988. Right now, President Trump is massively unpopular. Polls increasingly show even his strongest supporters outraged at what they see as the financial corruption of President Trump and his entire family. This being the top issue in the polls.
History records little evidence Trump can magically become popular by 2028. As disgraced President Richard Nixon famously said, the American people have a right to have a Commander-in-Chief who isn’t “a crook.” Lord Acton warned years ago, power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. This warning not heeded by Trump, his family, indeed many close supporters. By midnight this November 3rd, I believe they will realize the American people have had enough of this shameless grifting.
I’ll say it plainly: I don’t believe Donald Trump will serve out the remainder of his second term. Unlike disgraced President Richard Nixon, Trump doesn’t have to fear impeachment.
Yet it is increasingly clear — based on Democratic campaign rhetoric — Trump and his family will face withering criminal investigation. First by a Democratic Congress, then by the Attorney General of the United States appointed by the Democratic president inaugurated on January 20th, 2029.
Right now, no Republican can win the next presidential election and unless Trump reverses his slide in the polls, Trump may have fatally wounded the Republican Party for a generation as well.
Trump, his family, and his enablers are entitled to the benefit of the doubt. I would urge people who claim he violated his constitutional duties to remember their duty is to the recognize no one should be presumed guilty. When all the facts are known, there may be a legal defense.
Yet the fact is they have received incredible sums from the richest people and companies in the world. These benefactors then later received far bigger benefits from the Trump administration. To repeat: this demands a fair investigation before one decides.
However, the issue is not what a Democratic Congress or Democratic White House may conclude, but rather how Trump, his family, and closest advisers perceive what might be the conclusion.
My hunch: Trump will assume the worst. In that regard, I believe this is a wise choice. If Trump asked me for my legal advice, I’d tell him to assume Democrats will try to put as many members of his family as possible in jail and clawback as much money as they can. I don’t see how anyone can win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 by promising anything less. If anything, the winner will have to promise far more.
Therefore it seems to me, as an analyst, Trump has only one protection: A presidential pardon. Contrary to what law professor are telling the public, the pardoning power of the president is not absolute. In that regard, I think White House lawyers have also made a serious constitutional mistake.
In our system of laws, the US Supreme Court is the ultimate arbitrator of whether a pardon is constitutional. Therefore, I think Trump fears pardoning himself. The same for pardoning members of his family although former President Joe Biden did issue a pardon for his son Hunter.
My bet: The United States Supreme Court would declare a pardon issued by President Trump to himself unconstitutional. Any other ruling would find the president is above the law. Such a decision would destroy the very basis of our legal system. Therefore, I assume the Supreme Court would do the same for a president pardoning a member of his or her own family. There is, of course, the issue of who has standing to file a legal challenge to such pardons. If the Supreme Court wants to hear a case, it usually finds sufficient standing.
This leaves only one bottom line option for Trump: He will need to resign to allow President J.D. Vance to issue the pardons. Given the constitutional pardoning power of the president, I don’t think these Vance pardons could be challenged on legal grounds.
Sadly, I don’t see Trump and his family stopping their grifting, much less returning what they have already received. Based on the now public donor list to his White House ballroom, American big business, international big business, and an incredible list of scoundrels and billionaires are feeding this Trump family need with no limit in sight.
In viewing the chessboard as a neutral analyst, it is going to be increasingly tilted against President Trump. He surely understands J.D. Vance is inevitably becoming his most important ally.
Accordingly, I see a repeat of the Nixon resignation and Ford pardon. Vance’s only slim chance of winning requires him running as the sitting president. Therefore, both men need each other.
Surely they know this.
PAUL GOLDMAN is former Chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”
