Virginia’s 9th Congressional District covers more than 10,000 square miles, according to Census Reporter, making it the largest in the commonwealth by land mass. The highest voter concentration is in Montgomery County, home to Blacksburg and Virginia Tech, with slightly more than 11 percent of the district’s registered voters.
Poverty is a challenge in the 9th. Census Reporter lists the percentage of persons living below the poverty line at 16.2 percent – the poverty rate in all of Virginia is 9.8 percent. Median household income and median value of owner-occupied housing units are also well below state average.
Republicans have held the district consistently since the early 1990s. The last Democrat to win the district in a statewide race was Sen. Mark Warner in 2008. In 2025, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears received 68 percent of the 9th’s votes for governor, Jason Miyares took 72 percent in the race for attorney general, and John Reid received 69 percent in the race for Lt. Governor.
The current representative, Republican Morgan Griffith, has held the seat since 2011.
Platforms
INCUMBENT: Morgan Griffith (R-VA)
CHALLENGER: Joy Powers (D)
State of the Race as of September 8, 2026
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
UVA Sabato Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
270 to Win: Solid Republican
VPAP: Solid Republican
Republican Morgan Griffith is seeking a ninth consecutive term. In 2024 he defeated Democrat Karen Baker by taking 72.5 percent of the vote. In Congress, Griffith sits on the the House Energy and Commerce Committee, where he chairs the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. He also serves as vice chair of the House Committee on Rules and sits on the Committee on House Administration. Key components of his re-election campaign include promoting an “all of the above” solution to energy and protecting coal as an energy source, fighting the opioid epidemic, securing elections by requiring proof of citizenship in order to register to vote, and protecting farmers by reigning in overreach by the Environmental Protection Agency. As of July, Griffith reported a campaign cash balance of $1,038,125.
Joy Powers is challenging Griffith. She previously ran for the General Assembly in 2025 seeking House District seat 51. She lost that election to Republican Eric Zehr. Powers is running on her H.O.M.E Plan, with “HOME” serving as an acronym for Healthcare, Opportunity, Market Affordability, and Education. Her campaign website says that “ For too long, our corner of the Commonwealth has been treated as an afterthought. The H.O.M.E. Plan is … a living and evolving framework to bring investment, opportunity, and respect back to rural communities.” As of July, Powers’ campaign cash balance was $18,014.
What to Watch: Griffith Likely Wins, but by How Much?
Rep. Griffith has won re-election in each of the past three congressional elections with at least 72 percent of the vote. With a substantial cash advantage, and an electorate that has overwhelmingly voted Republican for the past quarter century, Griffith is the odds-on favorite.
The question will be, by how much is he likely to win? Poll watchers over the past 12 months have noted that Trump’s support has eroded with most every group since his 2024 victory. While Republicans still support him, they are not as supportive as they were a year ago. The president’s support among independents – the group that drove his victory in 2024 – has cratered. (The Economist has done some of the best work on this. See also polling by PRRI.)
If Griffith wins with 70 percent of the vote or more, it will suggest that at least in southwest Virginia the declining-support-for-Trump narrative isn’t holding.
If he wins with 60 percent of the vote, however, or a number close to it, this bodes poorly for Republicans running in tighter races across Virginia. That result could suggest that Trump’s supporters are either staying home, or backing others.
For Tom Perriello in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District and Elaine Luria in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, that’s what they’ll be watching on Election Night.
