Politics

The Long and Winding Election Road

Early voting starts today. This election may prove among the most unpredictable in recent memory.

Martin A. Davis, Jr.

September 18, 2026

Election Day is November 3, but it’s a long and winding road, to borrow from Paul McCartney, to victory cheers and concession tears. And that journey begins today in Virginia.

Voters have a lot to weigh. There are three constitutional amendments, 47 localities voting on a one-cent school construction tax, 11 congressional races, and one U.S. Senate race.

Here are some of the storylines to watch as we move into the midterms.

How Much Will Donald Trump Matter? National politics always have an impact on statewide and local elections in Virginia, if for no other reason than in the number of voters that turn out. The question is how much will the president affect turnout? Donald Trump’s numbers are, to put it mildly, terrible. According to the Economist, Trump’s numbers are 16 points worse than Biden’s at the same point in his term, and 15 points worse than Trump’s first-term numbers. Theoretically, one would expect this to energize Democratic voters – as it did in 2018 when they swept control of Congress in a Blue Wave. Traditionally, after all, the midterms are a referendum on the White House. But the picture this year is more complicated. Because …

Spangerberger May Have Woken Up Republican Voters. Her decision to get fully behind the redrawing of congressional lines in Virginia backfired spectacularly. Democrats had mixed feelings about midyear redistricting, which explains why it passed with just over 50 percent of the vote. Then, the State Supreme Court struck it down, leaving the governor holding the bag, and resulting in underwater polling numbers shortly thereafter. Republicans – who just six months earlier had been routed by Democrats – woke up to a campaign message — Spanberger is governing from the far left. If that message sticks …

Frustration with Trump and Frustration with Spanberger May Level the Playing Field. Democrats may be motivated to stop Trump and place Democrats in Congress, driving up turnout in contested races, but Republicans may also be motivated to remind Spanberger not to move too far left by turning up at the polls. In short, both sides could be at equal strength when it comes to voter turnout.

Congressional Elections Have the National Eye. The balance of power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate are at stake, Virginia’s congressional races have drawn a lot of attention. Two of these races are dead heats. In Virginia 1, incumbent Rob Wittman (Republican) has his hands full with Shannon Taylor (Democrat). While many observers give the nod to Wittman, it wouldn’t take much to tip the results in favor of Taylor should Democratic voters turn out en masse. In Virginia 2, the rematch between incumbent Jen Kiggans (Republican) and Elaine Luria (Democrat) is rated a dead heat. Campaigning will be intense down the stretch. Early voting has tended to favor Democrats. Watch to see if 2026 turnout is as strong as 2018, and as blue.

Don’t Sleep on These Two. While the 1st and 2nd districts are grabbing headlines, two other races are worth watching. Virginia 5 is one that Democrats have eyed as a seat they can flip. Tom Perriello (Democrat) is pushing incumbent John McGuire (Republican), and is well within striking distance. A Perriello win could portend a strong night for Democrats. However, incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman has problems in the 7th. Though favored to win, Republican challenger Doug Ollivant is gaining steam. Vindman’s refusing to debate could prove consequential in a district that is always close.

Data Centers. Not much unites voters these days, but if polling is to be believed, animosity toward data centers is a truly bipartisan issue. But which party can turn that to their advantage? Trump is unapologetically pro-data center and pro-AI. That won’t help motivate Republicans. But Spanberger has held the line on data center incentives, which isn’t going down well with Democrats. (Note: Spanberger is holding a press conference at 11 today on AI and data centers. Stay with the VFP for coverage.) The tell-tale race here may be in the 10th, where incumbent Democrat Suhas Subramanyam is pushing an anti-data center package of legislation in Congress, likely hoping to turn Democratic outrage into votes. But his Republican opponent, David Beckwith, is also taking a stand, just more nuanced. His push is against power lines, not data centers, which could be attractive to moderates looking for a different approach. This race is always close. Data centers could turn the tide.

What about Affordability? The cost of living is climbing, and there’s no sugar-coating it. From the gas pump to the grocery check-out line, consumers are increasingly pinched. Democrats rightly blame Trump’s policies (tariffs and the war with Iran), Republicans rightly point to Spanberger and recent legislation (in particular re-entering the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) likely to raise costs. Bottom line, not one is winning on this front right now. Can someone figure out a solution and invigorate voters?

Those Constitutional Amendments. In normal times, all three probably pass with little problem. On the issue of abortion, Virginians have consistently supported a right to choice – though there are wide disagreements on how deep into a pregnancy that choice should extend. Marriage equality also consistently polls favorably. So, too, restoring voting rights to felons. But these issues don’t appear to be energizing voters. That fact alone shows just how much things have changes since Spanberger took office. Expect party line votes. The party that turns out the base and snares moderates likely wins here.

The Senate Race. Long-serving Senator Mark Warner is heavily favored to win over Republican contender Bert Mizusawa. Don’t expect an upset here, but mind the margins. If this race isn’t called early, it could prove a troubling sign for Democrats in other races.
Falling in Love with Taxes? Taxing the rich is a popular idea among many Democrats today. Easy to support as most voters aren’t affected. But a general retail penny tax to pay for school construction? That affects everyone. And in a time of rising costs, how much more pain are voters willing to bear? Voters in 47 localities are about to answer that question. If it passes in 40 or more of the localities, it’s a sign that Democrats will have a good Election Night.

This election is shaping up to be one of the more difficult to predict, because it’s hard to see people voting party line up and down the ballot. They may vote party line on constitutional amendments, for example, but on data centers? Likely no. German Lopez put a fine point on the problem in a piece for the New York Times recently.

Both parties are disliked at the moment. As he concludes: “In a world of ideological purity, a Democratic voter would always oppose [prayer in schools] and support [homeless encampments], while a Republican voter would do the reverse. But it doesn’t work that way. In reality, people often have heterodox views that defy strict partisanship.”

That will be the story line on election night — did voters finally break from party?

The answers lie at the end of the long and winding road to November 3.

It starts today. Vote.