It is no secret that Trump has had an energizing effect on Democratic voters in Virginia. The blue wave of 2017 and last year’s landslide victory for Spanberger and House Democrats show just how strong the headwinds can be when a fired-up base wants to vote against the President.
This fall’s Congressional races may have Republican incumbents Rob Wittman and, especially, Jen Kiggans on the ropes. If things get really bad, even John McGuire and Ben Cline could be in danger in their presumably safer districts.
Yet there are other, longer-term concerns that should worry Virginia Republicans beyond just this fall.
Remember the big news back in August about Virginia’s role in national elections. National Democrats have shuffled their Presidential primary calendar, ensuring Virginia plays a more prominent role in deciding the Democratic nominee. In terms of the actual calendar, Virginia is only moving up a few days, from March 3 to February 29. But in the last open primary in 2020, March 3 was a “super Tuesday” of 15 contests. In the new calendar, Virginia will be the last of six early contests meant to winnow the field.
Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire were first out the gate; the new calendar drops Iowa and situates New Hampshire in between South Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico and Michigan – all home to important Democratic constituencies. Having states like Virginia on the calendar early might produce candidates that are more palatable to a November electorate than the more progressive party base.
I’ve argued elsewhere that Virginia is an increasingly solid blue state, and with this calendar shuffle, national party leaders seem to agree. As Virginia becomes an increasingly important brick in a blue wall, Virginia Republicans may have a hard time breaking through in statewide elections.
More important are the structural challenges that the GOP will have to face everywhere, and not just in Virginia: a reckoning from the past decade of Trumpian politics. If you build a political cult around a single leader, what happens when that leader goes away? History has some dark answers for this question.
Trump’s hints about pursuing a third term have always been concerning, considering his disdain for democratic norms and, in some cases, the law and constitution. Still, such ruminations for the rapidly aging President are likely to go nowhere, so his party has to face a post-Trump future.
Trump has energized Democrats, true, but he also has fired up a working class base that has voted Republican largely in support of him. Does this base stay loyal to the Republicans under a JD Vance, Ted Cruz or whoever else steps up to the plate? Or do they just stay home?
In Virginia, the recent past is littered with failed candidates who tried to do Trump-without-Trump. Was anyone inspired by Winsome Sears’ aggressive – some would say Trumpian — debate performance last year? How far did Amanda Chase’s “Trump in heels” act take her? Does anyone remember Corey Stewart? We’ve watched various Virginia Republicans try to replicate Trump’s approach to politics, but these folks have lacked whatever odd mix of charisma, political instincts, sheer chutzpah, and dark magic that has made Trump so inexplicably successful. Will Jason Miyares, Glenn Sturtevant, or anyone else be able to pull it off when all these others have failed? Or will they find some alternative, non-Trumpian path to winning Virginia?
In recent Virginia elections, the drag from unpopular national politicians has been palpable. It’s not just Trump; Biden’s rough years in office helped Glenn Youngkin win the 2021 gubernatorial race in what should still be considered a pretty big upset. More than ever, state politics is tied to what’s going on in national politics; and an unpopular national leader and a national party in disarray can dramatically shift state elections as well.
So here in Virginia, Republicans might reasonably fear a repeat of last year’s Blue Wave during this fall. But maybe more importantly, they should worry about what the future of their party looks like, especially when it has been restructured over the last decade to serve one man. When that man is gone, who remains to pick up the pieces? And will whatever Virginia Republicans do even matter?
We’ll find out, and soon.
RICHARD MEAGHER is Professor and Chair of Political Science at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia; he writes the RVA Politics newsletter on Substack.
